Headline vs core

Một bạn hỏi tôi cách dịch thuật ngữ headline và core CPI, tôi không biết dịch thế nào cho ngắn gọn và đủ ý. Bởi vậy tôi quyết định "outsource" câu hỏi này cho các commenters, hi vọng các bạn có phương án dịch hay. Dưới đây là giải thích (dài dòng) về 2 thuật ngữ này:

Headline CPI: là chỉ số giá (CPI) được các cơ quan thống kê quốc gia điều tra và công bố dựa trên một rổ hàng hóa trung bình mà người dân mua sắm. Sở dĩ có chữ "headline" vì tốc độ tăng giảm của chỉ số này (ie lạm phát) thường được báo chí đưa vào dòng tiêu đề của những bài về kinh tế, vd "Lạm phát tháng 1 là 0.7%". Headline ở đây nghĩa là tiêu để, nghĩa bóng là bề nổi.

Core CPI: là chỉ số giá tính theo rổ hàng hóa tương tự như rổ tính headline CPI nhưng loại bỏ lương thực/thực phẩm và năng lượng. Lý do loại bỏ 2 loại hàng hóa rất quan trọng này ra khỏi rổ tính core CPI vì giá của chúng thường thay đổi rất mạnh so với các mặt hàng khác, bởi vậy làm headline CPI bị nhiễu vì dao động quá nhiều. Core ở đây là cốt lõi, nhưng dịch như vậy có một điểm không hay là ngầm định food/energy không phải là những hàng hóa tiêu dùng cốt lõi, hoàn toàn không chính xác với đa số người dân.


Update: Cám ơn các bạn đã góp ý dịch. Chốt lại tôi thấy phương án dịch 2 thuật ngữ này như sau là hợp lý nhất:

- Headline CPI/inflation = chỉ số lạm phát toàn phần. Chữ "toàn phần" không dịch đúng chữ "headline" nhưng phản ánh khá chính xác ý nghĩa của thuật ngữ này và đủ ngắn (2 âm tương đương với headline). Khiếm khuyết duy nhất của cách dịch này là nó không phản ánh được nghĩa bóng của từ headline, nghĩa là đây là chỉ số lạm phát có tính bề nổi, giật gân mà báo chí đưa tin chứ không phải là chỉ số mà giới hoạch định chính sách hay giới professional quan tâm.

- Core CPI/inflation = chỉ số lạm phát lõi. Chữ "lõi" nghe hơi "vật lý" nhưng tốt hơn các chữ cốt lõi/cơ bản/cơ cấu vì nó ít có hàm ý food/energy không quan trọng. Lõi còn có nghĩa là nằm bên trong/chính giữa cũng phản ánh được hình ảnh volatility của food/energy price rất lớn nên sẽ nằm ngoài (bao phủ) phần volatility của các thành phần còn lại.

Updates

All articles in Financial accounting updated.

Right Feng Shui Foods According to Elements and Feng Shui for Weight Loss

Weight loss is one of the most important problems faced by many individuals now and people are trying every means to be successful in weight loss for promoting health. Feng shui can be used effectively to promote weigh loss and welcome good health into your lives. The five elements theory will work here also as in all aspects of your life for feng shui.

The five senses correspond to the five elements and understanding these basic principles of feng shui elements theory will help you to lose weight and welcome a good and healthy figure. Each elements corresponds to one of the senses and this knowledge will help you to select and to eat feng shui lucky foods for health.

The sense of touch corresponds to the fire element and it is very good to involve some red colour in the selection of foods according to feng shui. Addition of red chillies will promote good health and add fire element energy into your life through feng shui food. The sense of smell corresponds to the element metal which is a strong energy and you can bring in metal luck through adding foods that are aromatic and herbs that will enhance the smell of food. Cardamom, cloves and bay leaves are added in most of the Indian food to enhance the flavours and aroma of food dishes. The water element corresponds sense of hearing and this is the most important sense which we ignore and hence the problem with this element results in weight gain. We eat fast and do not involve all our five senses during the process of eating and hence the food that goes inside does not give us good feng shui energy resulting in ill health and weigh gain.

The sense of sight is of wood element and it is good to involve brown and orange coloured vegetables and fruits in your daily diet to bring in earth element energy. Yellow lemons and brown potatoes as well as green leafy vegetables are a must in your daily diet to welcome the wood energy. The element for taste is earth and we all know tasty foods are eaten well and more.

You can use feng shui principles by following simple tips for weight loss. Include all colour foods in your daily diet. The process of eating must involve all the five senses that is feel the food, smell it, taste it well and eat it slowly like the water flows into peace and good health. Listen to the crunchy salad sounds and the crisp bread and let the feelings of texture rotate in your mouth before swallowing the food. Appreciate the flavours in your feng shui food and select healthy food according to feng shui principles of five elements theory for good health and weight loss.

Right Number of Feng Shui Lucky Chinese Coins and Their Meaning

Coins are an easy and sure way to welcome wealth and money luck into your life. People use this feng shui cure and we see many people tie feng shui lucky coins and put them into their home, office and wallet or purse.As coins are metal energy you can improve their energy by using a red ribbon to tie the feng shui lucky coins. The importance of feng shui numbers can be used to effectively improve your money and wealth luck.
Having a single feng shui coin is considered inauspicious as Chinese believe the number one promotes loneliness. It is always good feng shui to have at least a pair of feng shui coins.Single coin has no particular significance whereas two coins , as the sound in Chinese for two is easy, will promote easy coming of money. three number means rebirth and having three Chinese lucky coins will mean money is always replenished or replaced and symbolizes the wallet will never be empty.
Number four sounds and represents death or to die and having four coins means death of money and this situation is the worse in feng shui so it is very inauspicious to have four coins as this will bring bad money luck and the person will always be short of money and in debt. The number five is again very inauspicious as the sound of Chinese word five means 'no' hence money will not come to such a person who has five coins with him.

Feng Shui Lucky Coins painting for wealth and money luck

You can also hang a beautiful feng shui lucky coins painting to invite wealth luck into your home or office. personalized lucky coin paintings can be got by considering your personal feng shui lucky number.   Six means to roll and yes, money comes rolling in to a person who has six Chinese coins tied with red ribbon for money luck. Seven means to be sure and this indicates that money will surely come to such a person. eight means prosperity and what better number than to use eight coins to welcome prosperity. as this will mean that you will become prosperous.
The number nine or having nine gold coins for luck will mean money will be forever as this word means longevity and will promote good luck and wealth luck for your whole life.
So the number of coins you have in your wallet for luck will affect directly to your money luck and you can use feng shui numbers for attracting good money and wealth luck.

Feng Shui Tip for too Much of Yin or Yang energy Numbers, Number Two in Feng Shui

Numbers are an very important part of our lives and we are linked with numbers right from our birth in from of our birth date and time of birth along with the day and year of our birth. These numbers have a great influence on our destiny and as we say numbers play havoc so also do they lead us to our destiny.
There are odd numbers and even numbers and as I do not wish to go very deep into this science of numbers called numerology we will discuss numbers in simple form and how to use numbers for your benefit in your daily lives.
Numbers also have an energy which affects us in any form. having even numbers or odd numbers will have an effect on our life and destiny. Odd numbers are considered to have yang energy or white energy that is celestial or masculine energy and even numbers are yin energy, the dark or down ward energy which will pull you down.
many times people find themselves stuck up with more yin energy numbers and every action that they make will require extra effort as the energy from yin numbers will keep pulling them downward . In feng shui we think about balance and anything which is in imbalance will create bad feng shui. One important tip to cure this bad feng shui is to add a zero or any icon to break the number power and use numbers to your benefit. If it is harmless to add a number and possible you can add a pattern of a circle to your flat number, of n write them always together to increase the total number value an thus break the negative effects of yin or yang numbers.course in legal matter this will not be possible. In case you have your birth date and year you can write them together to break the negative effects of too much yin or yang numbers. Some people also write date along with their year and month to add value to their numbers.
yang numbers are often termed as celestial energy numbers and are connected to the heaven luck. Whereas the yin numbers are connected to the earth luck.
In number two the feng shui symbolism is very lucky as we all know for any success there is the pair luck required. This two number will help you to come out of any problems and you will always find a friend or soul mate by your side. Always we in feng shui believe number two to be very lucky for marriage luck  and hence having anything or object in pairs in your bedroom will not only invite marriage luck but also attract the right partner for marriage and if married will promote love and harmony in your existing relationship.
In office the number two will attract good business partners and prosperity and wealth. There is special symbolism attached to the number two as pair of any energy will create balance and feng shui is all about balancing energy.
A pair of dragons in the south or a pair of phoenix birds for fame and a pair of mandarin ducks in the bedroom  will invite lots of feng shui luck into your home. Hanging a feng shui painting having anything in pair will instantly improve the energy in your home and life. Having the number two in your birth date may reflect in your personality as having too much yin energy. Adding the number one will make it total of number three which again is a very powerful number.
So which ever number you have you can total up your birth date, month and year and come to your personal number. then you can study the main attributes of this number and understand the energy of these numbers. Accordingly you can try to balance or improve the energy of yourself and your destiny by using numbers to your benefit.

Tokyu Corporation invests in real estate in the suburds of Ho Chi Minh City

VNRE - Tokyu Corporation - Japan, on February 27, signed a contract to become strategy partner with Becamex IDC Corporation. The joint venture company - Becamex Tokyu Co, Ltd. will develop an urban development named Tokyu Binh Duong Garden City in Binh Duong New City with total investment capital about of $1,2 billion.


Tokyu Binh Duong Garden City has total land area of 71,45 hectares, consisting of approximately 7,500 housing units, commercial facilities, business facilities and amusement parks.

As planned, the Tokyu Binh Duong Garden City project will be broken ground on March 2, 2012.



Tokyu Corporation

The Tokyu Corporation, also known in Japanese as Tōkyū Dentetsu for short, is a major private railway operator in the Greater Tokyo Area of Japan. Its headquarters are in Shibuya, Tokyo.

It was formed on September 2, 1922 as the Meguro-Kamata Electric Railway and was later known as the Tokyo-Yokohama Electric Railway before gaining its current name in 1943. From 1944 to 1948, it also owned the companies now known as the Keihin Electric Express Railway, Keio Corporation, and Odakyu Electric Railway. During this time, it was colloquially known as Dai-Tokyu (lit. Great Tokyu).

Becamex IDC Corporation

Investment and Industrial Development Corporation ( Becamex IDC) was established in 1976, over 35 years of construction and development, Becamex IDC has now become a prestigious brand name in the field of investment and development of industrial, residential, urban and transportation infrastructure.

Currently, Becamex IDC has 28 subsidiaries and joint efforts covering areas of securities, finance, insurance, banking, construction, trading, real estate, services, telecommunication - information technology , concrete production, construction materials, mining, pharmaceuticals, healthcare and education with charter capital of approximately 5.500 bil VND

Binh Duong New City

According to a future-oriented planning, Binh duong will be upgraded to become one of the centrally-controlled municipalities in Vietnam by 2020. Therefore, to ensure development in accordance with the approved master plan, a new urban area of 1,000 ha in the complex is built to become a modern, civilized center district of Binh Duong in the future.

This locality has been chosen to be a political and administrative center of Binh Duong by Provincial Party Committee, People's Committees and People's Council with a high level of consensus. In order to complete the detailed planning of 1/500 scale with respect to modern style for this new urban area,Becamex IDC has invited the Institute of design and architect consulting from National University of Singapore (NUS) to implement this plan.

The new urban will become political - economic, cultural, social center of the entire province. The modern and urban center will be ready to serve more than 125,000 inhabitants and over 400,000 people working here. Complying with the approved planning, Becamex IDC has built modern infrastructure and public transportation system to easily connect with other nearby provinces and cities. In addition, Becamex IDC has organized a number of marketing activities to call for investment in the new urban area from experienced and prestigious domestic and foreign investors with a potential financial capacity.

Besides the administrative center is being constructed, some items such as Lucky Square conference center, ecology lakes, central park 120 hectares completed, and the Eastern International University scale 24,000 students began the first course.

In addition, the projects of town house, apartment, villa were built and some of them officially welcomed the first residents of the new city to live.

When Foreign Investors Dominate Real Estate Market

VNRE - There are signs of loosening credit for the property market, but the effect so far is not strong enough to wake up the long hibernating capital market. Grayness still covers the real estate market in early 2012.

Because of lack of capital, some projects have been forced to sell off, and many others are considering it. Therefore, in the near future, some projects are going to be divested. However, this is good opportunity for foreign investors to affirm their fame and take part in the Vietnam real estate market by replacing divested projects with their own.

Acquisitions and mergers

When real estate market loses its liquidation for a long time, most of real estate projects have to suffer from the loss for paying interest, especially for luxurious apartment projects, liquidation capacity becomes unreachable. But in reality, customers mainly focus on products with price of below VND2 billion.

Because of the tightening credit policy promulgated by the State Bank of Vietnam, many real estate companies are in trouble with capital mobilisation, additionally, negative effects of global economic downturn, high inflation rate and intensively fluctuated construction costs become the extreme burden for real estate companies, which do not possess a strong financial power.

While many completed projects can not to be bought by any customer, many real estate companies tend to sell or transfer part or all of their projects to foreign investors. In fact, Cuoc Cuong Sai Gon Company became a specific example pursuing to sell 65 percent (equivalent to VND121.2 billion) to Capita Value Homes Company, a subsidiary of Capita Land Group. Furthermore, this company also buys many other projects form Vietnamese investors.

Besides that, the Japanese Tama Home Group also marked its appearance in buying 20 percent of shares of Cotec Investment and Land-house Development Joint-stock Company, a member of Cotec Group.

Whilst many Vietnamese real estate companies are distressed by the frozen real estate market, some foreign investors are still confident to invest in Vietnam market. Particularly, in 2011, Indochina Capital - one of the leading real estate investment funds of Vietnam with annual revenue of US$40 million committed to continuously invest in many projects of Vietnam in 2012.

Mr Peter Ryder - Chief Executive Officer of Indochina Capital believes that recent difficulties of Vietnamese real estate companies have become opportunity for further development of Indochina Capital. According to him, the range of market demands is still large, especially projects with right location and competitive price are still concerned by customers. Foreign investors also have the same point of view that after recently frozen period, Vietnam real estate market will become warmer and strongly develop.

Opportunity or risk?

With both of objective and subjective challenges, many real estate companies must make acquisition and merger even they may be stuck with some difficult matters, for example: legal framework is not tight enough, transparency of the market is not high, procedures are complicated...

However, regarding many real estate experts, many acquisitions and mergers were realised. Mr Nguyen Huu Cuong, Chairman of Ha Noi Real Estate Club said: “In order to see the overall picture of all acquisitions and mergers of real estate companies and, we have to wait until 2012 when old real estate companies will be took place by the new ones, then we can acknowledge how much it will be and what will be the names to be replaced.”

The opened outlet for domestic real estate companies will invisibly create a very bad and dangerous precedent for real estate market because of not only economic matters but also security factors. Mr Nguyen Huu Cuong said: “If domestic real estate companies cannot find the way to unify, some better off investment projects would be transferred to foreign investors. And this situation cannot be controlled, because we are in the integration process. In the next few years, what will happen if projects with prior location belong to foreign investors”.

Accordingly, if companies do only care for themselves, they would not survive. The hardship will filter weak companies, but is it enough to build up the big domestic real estate groups, which are able to compete with foreign companies? Pursuing to some experts, domestic companies would rather unify and cooperate with each others to support resources among them than sell projects as retailers.

Reported by Luong Tuan | VCCI News

Kiss That Frog

Missed a promotion at work?  Leading a team of employees that is frustrating you?  Out of work and searching for a new job?  Mind full of negative thoughts?

Then, take a couple hours to read the Brian Tracy's newest book, Kiss That Frog!

In the book, Tracy and co-author, Christina Tracy Stein, present a step-by-step plan that addresses the root causes of negatively to help you:

• uncover blocks that have become mental obstacles
• transform those obstacles into stepping-stones to achieve your fullest potential at work and in your personal life

"Perhaps the greatest discovery in psychology and individual fulfillment is that the biggest obstacles that stand between you and an extraordinary life are usually negative mental attitudes toward yourself and others," explains Tracy.

The authors also explain that:

• One of the most helpful habits you can develop is choosing to seek the valuable lesson in everything that happens to you, especially negative experiences.
• It's not what happens to you in life that determines how you feel; it is how you respond to what happens.

Kiss That Frog! is an inspiring, motivating and uplifting read.  A good reminder of the importance of removing negativity from a leader's work and personal life.

Thanks to the authors for sending me an advance copy of the book.

Banking reform

Chỉ sau 5 năm hệ thống ngân hàng được tự do hóa, tổng dư nợ tín dụng tăng từ 85 lên 135% GDP. Sự tăng trưởng vượt bực tín dụng nội địa đã đẩy giá bất động sản và chứng khoán tăng vọt. Tiêu dùng và đầu tư tăng mạnh dẫn đến tăng trưởng nóng, đồng nội tệ bị định giá quá cao (overvalued), thâm hụt cán cân vãn lai, đồng thời lạm phát và lãi suất danh nghĩa tăng cao. Ngay khi nền kinh tế bị tác động bởi một vài cú sốc bên ngoài, một loạt doanh nghiệp đổ vỡ, bong bóng bất động sản và chứng khoán xì hơi. Hậu quả là tỷ lệ nợ xấu trong hệ thống ngân hàng tăng rất nhanh đẩy một số ngân hàng đến bờ vực phá sản, nền kinh tế đối mặt với nguy cơ khủng hoảng và suy thoái.

Đó là những gì đã xảy ra với Thụy điển trong giai đoạn cuối 1980 đầu 1990, đã hơn 20 năm nhưng có lẽ hoàn cảnh kinh tế tài chính của Việt nam trong vài năm quá có nhiều điểm tương đồng như vậy. Đối mặt với nguy cơ khủng hoảng, trong hai năm 1992-1993 Thụy điển đã thực hiện một cuộc cải cách hệ thống ngân hàng ngoạn mục, sau này được nhiều nhà kinh tế đánh giá là một cuộc cải cách thành công nhất trong lịch sử ngân hàng hiện đại. Không những tránh được đổ vỡ tài chính liên hoàn, kinh tế Thụy điển tăng trưởng rất ấn tượng những năm sau đó và chính phủ nước này đã thu hồi lại được gần như toàn bộ số tiền bỏ ra cứu trợ. Bài học của Thụy điển được nhiều nước học tập trong cuộc khủng hoảng tài chính vừa qua ở những mức độ khác nhau. Việt nam, với kế hoạch cải tổ hệ thống ngân hàng trong thời gian tới, rất có thể cũng sẽ học được nhiều điều từ kinh nghiệm của Thụy điển. Dưới đây là những gì Thụy điển đã làm và những bài học quan trọng được rút ra từ kinh nghiệm của họ.


Thụy điển 1992-1993

Cho đến năm 1992, Thụy điển thi hành chính sách tỷ giá cố định với hi vọng sẽ kiềm chế được lạm phát. Tuy nhiên mục tiêu lạm phát không đạt được khi lạm phát tăng quá 2 con số vào cuối những năm 1980, đồng thời đồng Krona bị định giá quá cao làm giảm sức cạnh tranh của các doanh nghiệp nội địa dẫn đến thâm hụt cán cân thanh toán ngày càng tăng. Tháng 11/1992 ngân hàng trung ương Thụy điển, Riksbank, phải chấp nhận thả nổi tỷ giá và chuyển sang sử dụng mục tiêu lạm phát (inflation targeting). Trong vòng 6 tháng đồng Krona mất giá hơn 40% và chỉ trong 2 năm cán cân vãn lai (current account balance) chuyển từ thâm hụt sang thặng dư. Lãi suất cho vay danh nghĩa cũng giảm từ 16% năm 1992 xuống dưới 10% năm 1996. Mặc dù GDP bị sụt giảm 6% trong 3 năm từ 1990 đến 1993, những năm sau đó Thụy điển có tăng trưởng trung bình gần 4%/năm bỏ xa các nước châu Âu khác trong cùng thời kỳ.

Tuy vai trò của chính sách thả nổi tỷ giá, đồng nghĩa với gián tiếp phá giá mạnh đồng nội tệ, rất quan trọng trong những năm đó, cuộc cải tổ hệ thống ngân hàng là chìa khóa dẫn đến thành công của Thụy điển. Đối mặt với sự đổ vỡ ngân hàng hàng loạt, đầu năm 1992 chính phủ Thụy điển tuyên bố bảo đảm toàn bộ số vốn của người dân và doanh nghiệp gửi hoặc đầu tư trong hệ thống ngân hàng ngoại trừ vốn của giới chủ ngân hàng. Mặc dù biện pháp bảo đảm toàn bộ (blanket guarantee) này gây nhiều tranh cãi, có lẽ đó là giải pháp duy nhất Thụy điển có thể lựa chọn ở thời điểm đó để ngăn ngừa sụp đổ dây chuyền. Sau này nhiều nước châu Âu như Đức, Ireland, Iceland, Đan mạch và Úc, New Zealand đã áp dụng biện pháp này ở thời điểm cao trào của cuộc khủng hoảng tài chính năm 2008. Một nghiên cứu của IMF cũng ủng hộ bảo đảm toàn bộ khi thị trường tài chính có nguy cơ rơi vào khủng hoảng tuy vẫn cảnh báo chi phí cho biện pháp này không nhỏ.

Sau khi trấn an thị trường bằng bảo đảm toàn bộ, Thụy điển quốc hữu hóa và hợp nhất hai ngân hàng Gotabanken và Nordbanken, ở thời điểm đó không còn đủ vốn chủ sở hữu theo luật định. Thụy điển đã rất kiên quyết loại bỏ các cổ đông hiện hữu của hai ngân hàng này, giữ vững nguyên tắc các chủ ngân hàng phải chịu lỗ và mất vốn trước khi chính phủ rót tiền cứu trợ. Biện pháp mạnh tay này đã thúc đẩy các ngân hàng thương mại khác nhanh chóng tăng vốn chủ sở hữu (recapitalize), giảm bớt rủi ro cho toàn bộ hệ thống. Riêng với hai ngân hàng bị quốc hữu hóa, Thụy điển tách số tài sản xấu ra khỏi bảng cân đối tài sản và giao cho hai công ty quản lý tài sản (AMC - asset management company) quản lý riêng. Hai AMC này hoạt động như một dạng quĩ đầu tư vốn (private equity fund), cấp vốn và quản lý những doanh nghiệp còn khả năng sinh lợi đồng thời lựa chọn thời điểm và khách hàng thích hợp để thanh lý những phần tài sản còn lại. Đến năm 1997 các AMC đã hoàn thành cơ bản nhiệm vụ của mình và được giải thể. Ngân hàng Nordbanken cũng dần dần được tư hữu hóa và đổi tên thành Nordea. Toàn bộ chi phí cho vụ giải cứu/cải tổ hệ thống ngân hàng này của Thụy điển khoảng 4% GDP nhưng sau khi tư hữu hóa Nordbanken và thanh lý AMC ngân sách Thụy điển đã thu lại được gần như toàn bộ số tiền nói trên.


Bài học Thụy điển

Ngay từ năm 1997 đích thân thống đốc Urban Bäckström của Riksbank đã có một bài phát biểu tại Cục Dự trữ Liên bang Mỹ (Kansas City) tổng kết kinh nghiệm của mình. Đến năm 2007, Emre Ergungor, một nhà kinh tế thuộc Fed Cleveland, viết một bài tổng kết khá chi tiết kinh nghiệm giải cứu hệ thống ngân hàng của Thụy điển giai đoạn 1992-1993. Bài nghiên cứu này được báo Wall Street Journal tóm tắt lại vào tháng 2/2009 khi giới hoạch định chính sách Mỹ đang loay hoay giải cứu hệ thống tài chính của mình. Cũng vào thời điểm đó, Lars Jonung - giáo sư kinh tế của Lund University - có một tổng kết tương tự viết cho ECFIN của European Commission. Tựu trung có ba bài học quan trọng từ kinh nghiệm của Thụy điển.

Bài học thứ nhất là tính minh bạch. Chính thống đốc Bäckström cho biết ở thời điểm đáy của cuộc khủng hoảng Thụy điển có thể giấu thông tin về các khoản lỗ của các ngân hàng và để cho các AMC thanh lý dần dần nhằm tránh gây sốc cho thị trường. Tuy nhiên Riksbank đã quyết định công bố toàn bộ thông tin về tài sản và nợ xấu, điều này vừa giúp giảm bớt bất ổn (uncertainty) của hệ thống vừa giúp chính phủ nhìn rõ các rủi ro và chuẩn bị nguồn lực đủ lớn đủ để hoàn thành kế hoạch giải cứu. Việc yêu cầu các ngân hàng thua lỗ mở sổ sách cũng giúp Thụy điển dễ dàng bắt các chủ ngân hàng hiện hữu chấp nhận lỗ và mất quyền kiểm soát ngân hàng (bị quốc hữu hóa). Đảng cầm quyền và phe đối lập đạt được đồng thuận về phương án giải quyết phần nào cũng nhờ sự minh bạch này.

Bài học thứ hai là nguồn lực cho công cuộc giải cứu/cải tổ phải đủ mạnh. Nguồn lực ở đây không chỉ dừng ở nguồn tài chính để tái cấp vốn và bảo đảm toàn bộ (blanker guarantee) mà còn là cơ chế và thẩm quyển của những cá nhân và đơn vị trực tiếp tham gia vào quá trình giải cứu. Cụ thể các AMC của Thụy điển đã được chính phủ cam kết cung cấp mức vốn lên đến 24 tỷ Krona, tương đương với ngân sách quốc phòng trong một năm. Các AMC được giao rất nhiều quyền liên quan đến việc quản lý và định đoạt số tài sản mà họ được giao, ví dụ thuê mướn hay sa thải lãnh đạo các doanh nghiệp mà họ năm cổ phần hay thay đổi chiến lược kinh doanh của các công ty đó. Quyền lực của các AMC còn được gia tăng nhờ một số qui chế đặc cách liên quan đến các qui định và luật pháp quản lý ngân hàng hiện hữu. Tuy vậy AMC và các ngân hàng bị quốc hữu hóa vẫn phải đảm bảo tuân thủ theo các nguyên tắc thị trường.

Bài học thứ ba là giải quyết các vấn đề của hệ thống ngân hàng phải nằm trong tổng thể một gói chính sách vĩ mô đúng đắn có tầm nhìn. Thụy điển đã không thể thoát ra khỏi khủng hoảng nếu không có chính sách tỷ giá hợp lý đưa đồng Krona về đúng giá trị của nó và sự trợ giúp thanh khoản đầy đủ của Riksbank cho hệ thống ngân hàng ở những thời điểm khó khăn. Một cơ chế bình ổn tài khóa tự động cũng giúp kinh tế Thụy điển không rơi vào suy thoái quá sâu và giảm nhẹ gánh nặng kinh tế cho những người bị thất nghiệp. Hệ thống ngân hàng sau khi được tái cơ cấu cần phải được giám sát và quản lý rủi ro chặt chẽ nhằm tránh tăng trưởng tín dụng quá nóng và tích tụ quá nhiều nợ xấu là tiền đề của một cuộc khủng hoảng tiếp theo.

Tất nhiên rút ra bài học thì dễ, thực hiện được và thành công như Thụy điển không đơn giản chút nào. Mỹ đã không dám dũng cảm quốc hữu hóa Bear Stearns, Citigroup. Ireland, Iceland đã rơi vào vũng lầy nợ nần vì bảo đảm toàn bộ hệ thống ngân hàng. Châu Âu không thể vực dậy nền kinh tế vì ECB không linh hoạt trong chính sách tiền tệ. Anh vẫn loay hoay với chính sách tài khóa thắt lưng buộc bụng. Nhưng nói vậy không có nghĩa Việt nam không cần tham khảo và học hỏi những gì Thụy điển đã thành công. Một kế hoạch tái cơ cấu hệ thống ngân hàng có sự tham gia của đồng vốn nhà nước cần tuân thủ theo nguyên tắc các chủ ngân hàng phải là người chịu lỗ đầu tiên dù người dân gửi tiền có thể sẽ được nhà nước đứng ra bảo đảm. Kế hoạch và phương án tái cơ cấu cần phải minh bạch, nợ xấu của các ngân hàng cần công khai. Nếu Việt nam cũng thành lập các AMC để tách biệt tài sản xấu tính minh bạch càng cần trú trọng. Cuối cùng là NHNN càn có một quyết sách dũng cảm về chính sách tỷ giá, giải quyết triệt để vấn đề thâm hụt thương mại.

[Note: Một version của bài viết này đã được đăng trên TBKTSG]


Tài liệu tham khảo

Anders Aslund, 2009, Lessons for the US from the Swedish Bank Crisis, http://www.petersoninstitute.org/realtime/?p=504

Emre Ergungor, 2007, On the Resolution of Financial Crises: The Swedish Experience, http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/PolicyDis/pdp21.pdf

Lars Jonung, 2007, The Swedish model for resolving the banking crisis of 1991-93. Seven reasons why it was successful, http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication14098_en.pdf

Wall Street Journal, 20/02/2009, Lessons from Sweden’s Bank Nationalization,  http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/02/20/lessons-from-swedens-bank-nationalization/

Urban Bäckström, 1997, The Swedish experience, http://www.riksbank.se/en/Press-and-published/Speeches/1997/The-Swedish-experience/



Update (12/3): Bài học về kỷ luật tài khóa của Thụy điển thời gian đó.

Book Review: The First-Time Manager

Amacom (of the American Management Association) has just released the sixth edition of the best-selling book, The First-Time Manager -- originally published in 1981.

The book covers eight core responsibilities of a new manager, including:

• Hiring
• Communicating
• Planning
• Organizing
• Training
• Monitoring
• Evaluating
• Firing

Expert advice is additionally provided regarding:

• Using Your New Authority
• Managing Your Mood
• Building Trust

One of my favorite sections of the book is the one about class in a manager:

• Class is treating people with dignity.
• Class does not have to be the center of attention.
• Class does not lose its cool.
• Class does not rationalize mistakes.
• Class is good manners.
• Class means loyalty to one's staff.
• Class recognizes the best way to build oneself is to first build others.
• Class leads by example.
• Class does not taken action when angry.
• Class is authentic and works hard at making actions consistent with words.

The First-Time Manager is an excellent how-to guide for anyone new to managing people.

Other books for new managers include any from the Top 20 list of Leadership Books, as voted on by LinkedIn Linked 2 Leadership group members, who were asked the question:

• What's the first leadership book you would give to a new manager?

Taming The Email Monster

According to internal communication expert and consultant David Grossman of The Grossman Group, and as recently reported on NBC Nightly News, workplace email is out of control. 

• And, it's time to tame the email monster explains Grossman.

"You'd love to spend your day doing your job so that maybe, just maybe you could get home and enjoy uninterrupted time with your family or get out with friends," says Grossman.  "Instead, you spend so much time every day managing your inbox that everything else in your life--real work, family, play--is practically an afterthought."

Grossman has written a new free ebook where he tackles the email beast--showing what some companies are doing to:

• rein in the email monster
• make better use of working hours
• cut back on the stress on employees caused by a 24/7 cycle of endless emails

The ebook also includes tools and strategies for managing email in your workplace, and explains when it makes sense to use email--and when we should take advantage of the myriad other communication tools at our disposal.

Finally, in the ebook, Grossman talks about the CEO of French technology giant Atos, who plans to phase out internal emails by 2014.  The moved is a result of internal research that revealed time spent on emails by employees lessened time needed to be spent on management.

Work starts on property project in Tan Binh District

VNRE - Aircraft Repairing Company A-41 under the Ministry of Defense and Kinh Do Real Estate Company (Kinh Do Land) on Wednesday kicked off construction of an apartment, office and commercial complex in HCMC’s Tan Binh District.

The Cong Hoa Garden project worth around VND1.5 trillion covers around three hectares on Cong Hoa Street in Tan Binh District.

Consisting of five 13- to 15-floor blocks, the project has a total floor space of around 130,000 square meters, with 970 apartments and nearly 15,000 square meters of office space plus a retail section of 12,000 square meters.

The first phase of the project set for completion after two years of construction includes 216 serviced apartments having 50-89 square meters each and three floors of commercial center.

Tran Cao Thanh, deputy general director of Kinh Do Land, said that the firm would start selling apartments of the project in the fourth quarter with a price of VND17-18 million per square meter.

In related news, several condo developers are switching part of their commercial apartments into serviced condo for lease now that sales have almost stalled.

Several commercial apartment projects such as the XI Riverview Palace, the Vista in District 2 and Ben Thanh Luxury Apartments in District 1 are being switched into serviced ones.

According to CB Richard Ellis Vietnam (CBRE), this segment is having nearly 800 Grade-A apartments, around 2,500 Grade-B apartments and 1,000 Grade-C apartments with an average monthly rent of US$36.5, US$26 and US$17.5 per square meter respectively.

Tenants have now tended to choose smaller apartments with fewer bedrooms to save costs and shift from the city’s downtown to districts 2, 7 and Binh Thanh District.

The future supply will focus on small boutique projects in the city’s downtown, and the market will continue to face tough competition in the villa and apartment-for-rent segments, according to CBRE. These will help stabilize and lower the leasing price of many projects.

Reported by Dinh Dung - The Saigon Times Daily

Takashimaya to be anchor tenant in Keppel Land’s Saigon Centre Phase 2 in Ho Chi Minh City

VNRE - Keppel Land has signed a conditional agreement with Takashimaya Singapore Ltd ("Takashimaya"), a subsidiary of Takashimaya Co., Ltd ("Takashimaya Co."), to pre-commit approximately 15,000 sm of retail space across five floors of Saigon Centre Phase 2.

With Takashimaya coming onboard as anchor tenant, about 30% of the total retail area is pre-leased ahead of the development's expected completion in 2015.

This agreement comes shortly after the groundbreaking of the integrated mixed-use development in November last year. It marks Takashimaya's foray into the lucrative Vietnamese retail market and is part of its strategy to further expand into Asia.

Mr Kevin Wong, Group CEO of Keppel Land, said, "We are pleased that Takashimaya has selected Saigon Centre as its choice location for its first retail mall in Vietnam. This further establishes Saigon Centre as the place to be and preferred address for quality tenants. An established and quality brand in the industry, Takashimaya will complement and enhance the overall retail offerings at Saigon Centre and HCMC as a whole.

"The strong pre-commitment secured almost three years ahead of completion is significant and reaffirms our positive sentiments on the Vietnamese retail market. Given our extensive experience in Vietnam, coupled with Takashimaya's retail expertise and skills, Saigon Centre is well-poised to become the shopping destination in HCMC."

Ms Yoko Yasuda, Managing Director of Takashimaya Singapore, said, "With 18 years of retail experience in Singapore and its network of supply source, we are confident of contributing to a new shopping lifestyle in HCMC. The Vietnamese retail market is entering an exciting phase of growth with an increasing middle income class and Takashimaya is looking forward to participate in this emerging market. This being Takashimaya's first department store in Vietnam, we wanted a strategic location and renowned partner - we found both in Saigon Centre and Keppel Land."

At the same time, Toshin Development Co., Ltd ("Toshin Development"), the real estate subsidiary of Takashimaya Co., has entered into a share-purchase agreement with Keppel Land to hold 22.7% stake in Saigon Centre Phase 2. Keppel Land will also jointly establish a 50:50 retail management company with Toshin Development Singapore Pte Ltd, the Singapore subsidiary under Toshin Development, to provide retail management services for Keppel Land's projects in Vietnam. Toshin's expertise and skills in retail mall development will ensure that we continue to adopt best-in-class approach that will ensure operational excellence at Saigon Centre.

Strategically located along Le Loi Boulevard in the heart of HCMC's CBD, Phase 1 of the award-winning Saigon Centre was completed in 1996 and has established itself as the preferred shopping destination and a business address for diplomatic corps, multi-national companies as well as banking and financial institutions.

Currently under construction, Phase 2 of Saigon Centre is designed by internationally renowned architect, NBBJ based in New York. When fully completed in 2015, it will stand tall at 45 storeys with seven levels of retail and dining spaces spread across 50,000 sm; 40,000 sm of premium Grade A office space, and over 200 units of luxury serviced apartments.

The proposed joint establishment of the retail management company is not expected to have any material impact on the earnings per share or net tangible assets per share of the Company for the current financial year.

About Keppel Land

Building on a growing relationship that spans more than two decades, Keppel Land is one of the largest foreign real estate investors in Vietnam.

Named the Best Developer in Vietnam in 2010 by Euromoney, a leading global financial magazine, Keppel Land has a quality portfolio of properties in Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Dong Nai and Vung Tau including Grade A offices, residential properties, integrated townships and award-winning serviced apartments.

To-date, Keppel Land has 18 projects in Vietnam, with a total investment capital of almost USD 2 billion and a pipeline of about 22,000 homes.

About Takashimaya Singapore

Takashimaya Singapore Ltd was established in 1993. It is Singapore's largest department store that spans 35,000 square meters and the Singapore's leading store operator in terms of turnover. It is the anchor tenant of Takashimaya Shopping Centre, located along the country's premium shopping belt, Orchard Road.

About Toshin Development Co Ltd / Toshin Development Singapore Pte Ltd

In 1963, Toshin Development Co Ltd was founded by its parent company, Takashimaya, to develop the first authentic suburban shopping centre in Japan.

Since the opening of the Takashimaya Shopping Centre in Ngee Ann City in Orchard Road in 1993, it has been maintained by Toshin as the No.1 luxury shopping centre in Singapore. Toshin Development Singapore Pte. Ltd. was incorporated in Singapore as a subsidiary company from a branch office in 2010 to further enhance the operation of the overseas business in Southeast Asia.

Source: Keppel Land

How To Create An Effective Company Blog

If you lead a business and aren’t among the many companies using a blog for marketing purposes, your business likely will within the next year.
Awhile back, Emarketer estimated that the proportion of all U.S. companies that will use dedicated blogs as a marketing channel will reach 43% this year.


Businesses using blogs for communications, lead generation, customer service and branding primarily do so for these reasons:
• corporate control of the tool
• its integration with company web properties
• no limits on post lengths
• the ability to maintain a full, searchable repository of information

Successful blogs generally follow these tips and guidelines:
1. Make your blog as non-promotional as possible.
2. Keep it relevant to the reader.
3. Answer your customers’ questions or address their pain points.
4. Be sure it’s well-written.
5. Make it relevant to your company or products.
6. Offer proof or third-party validation to claims you make.
7. Keep each blog posting under 500 words.
8. End each post with a question that encourages dialogue with your readers.
9. Post regularly. Shoot for at least three times each week.
10. Talk in your normal voice.
11. Use real language. Don’t talk over people’s heads.

And once you’ve launched your blog, follow these tips for promoting it:
1. Promote your blog URL on your website.
2. Include the blog URL in your email signature. Encourage your employees to do the same.
3. Put your blog URL on your business cards, direct mail and print advertising.
4. Post your blog on Facebook.
5. Post your blog to your LinkedIn status.
6. Put your blog URL on company invoices as well as other correspondence to customers.
7. Talk about your blog when you speak at events.

Finally, remember that your blog is a promise to customers that you will communicate with them honestly and regularly. So, before you launch a blog be sure you have the time, staff and resources to post consistently and for the long-term.

Trang Tien Plaza – the mall is about to change

VNRE - Hanoi authorities have decided to restructure Trang Tien Plaza, the mall with the prime location on the corner of Hoan Kiem Lake.

The restructuring was initiated by the State Capital Investment Corporation and has been approved by the Hanoi People’s Committee.

The aim is to improve efficiency as well as upgrading the building including how it fits it surroundings.

In particular, however, it is the products on sale that will change with the new emphasis split between world brands and Vietnamese traditional products.

“It is necessary to work with the representatives of people in the Plaza and get their input,” said the chairman of Hanoi People’s Committee Nguyen The Thao.

Thao also stressed that the upgrading of the building must follow current laws on architecture planning management, investment and construction.

Agreeing with the proposal, deputy chairman of the Hanoi People’s Committee Nguyen Huu Tuong said he expects the building will be turned into a modern trade centre with national stature, deserving of its special location in the centre of the capital of Vietnam.

Tuong said that the Trang Tien Investment and Trade Company and the partners who join the investment and upgrading of Trang Tien Plaza must not lose the traditional characteristics of the previous “Bach hoa tong hop” (General Department Store) which has been familiar to many generations of Hanoians.

Trang Tien Plaza, which is located on the land where Bach hoa tong hop once existed, opened in early 2002 under the joint management of the Vietnam Construction Import-Export Corporation (Vinaconex) and the Hanoi Trade Corporation.

Set on the corner of Hoan Kiem lake and with Trang Tien, Hang Bai and Hai Ba Trung on three sides, the 20,000 square meter trade centre is expected to play a key role in defining the capital in a period of change.

Reported by Thoai My | VNN

Vietnam parks its skyscraper projects

VNRE - The 40-storey BIDV Tower will rise elegantly into the skyline of Ho Chi Minh City, the latest symbol of the Vietnam’s economic prowess, according to the architect’s plans.

But the reality is rather less lofty. In a property market hit hard by economic instability, building on the project, backed by the state-owned Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam, has stalled. The prime plot in Vietnam’s commercial capital, formerly known as Saigon, is one of several fallow building sites that have been turned into temporary car parks, where office workers pay 5,000 dong ($0.24 U.S.) a day to keep their scooters.

Read full story on The Globe and Mail

Copyright The Financial Times Ltd. All rights reserved.

New luxury residential building announced in Ha Noi

VNRE - Tan Hoang Minh Group and Ha Noi Housing Management and Development Company unveiled plans for a luxury residential complex on Ha Noi's Nguyen Van Huyen Street in Cau Giay District.

The VND4 trillion building will cover a ground area of 4,800 sq.m. Prices are estimated to reach VND100 million (US$5,000) per sq.m.

The D'Palais de Louis will be 27 storeys tall with an additional four floors underground. It will offer 242 residential apartments ranging from 120-260 sq.m.

Tan Hoang Minh said the building, which will have two swimming pools and two service centres in the lobby, would be completed and available for sales by 2014.

Source: VNS

Hanoi: Le Pont D’or Luxury Apartment

VNRE - Location: Hoang Cau Street, Dong Da District, Hanoi Capital

Gross Floor Area: 50,596 m2
Architecture design: Heerim-PVC International Design JSC
Investor: Tan Hoang Minh Corporation













Source: Heerim-PVC

Housing Development: Quick, Strong and Synchronous Solutions Needed

VNRE - The situation of the Vietnam real estate market is unpredictable and most people cannot afford to buy. According to statistics, for the last twenty years, land prices have risen by over 100 times, which makes a house price 25 times the average annual income, 5 times higher than in developed countries and 10 times higher than in under-developed countries. Consequently, the housing demand of low-income people becomes more and more difficult to satisfy.

Pushing up the development of social houses

According to the housing data of the Ministry of Construction in 2009, there were 4,750 homeless people in the city and 7,987 in rural areas. Furthermore, the family and housing survey data of the General Statistics Office also revealed that there were about 1.6 million temporary accommodations, 0.5 million flats of less than 15 sq.m in the city and 1.5 million temporary houses in rural areas.

Additionally, the Ministry of Construction also stated that the 5.8 million low-income people in urban areas needed approximately 70 million sq.m of housing; by 2020, it is estimated that these figures would grow to 6.5 million of people and 117 million sq.m of housing. So, the housing demand of low-income people is truly real. However, not all of them can afford an apartment with their current net income.

In Vietnam, house prices seem to have no relation with average incomes, according to many observers and experts. In accordance with Prof Dr Dang Hung Vo, Deputy Minister of of Natural Resources and Environment, for a long time, real estate project investors have been misled by speculators, so they tended to invest in luxurious real estate projects with the expectation of high profit.

A simple calculation shows that in order to buy an apartment, an average employee would have to save 30 percent of their income for 75 years. As a result, most employees can only start to think of owing an apartment when they get old.

Right after the new lunar year, Mr Trinh Dinh Dung, Minister of Construction, delivered a message of hope for the poor. He said that social housing needed to be developed despite economic difficulties in 2012 and the following years.

The Ministry and construction sector hope that the plan for housing development will be approved by authorities, enterprises and the public. In comparison with private real estate projects, developing social houses and houses for the poor is much more difficult.

The Ministry of Construction will make every effort, completing committed tasks and applying policies to make social housing more widely available and to satisfy people who need dwellings.

State support needed

Regarding the national housing development strategy to 2020 and a vision to 2030, many experts said that the strategy was standing stably on two feet: by the market for wealthy people and by the State’s support for the poor. It has brought hopes of home ownership to low income people and the poor.

The State has policies pushing the housing market, and at the same time expands house supporting policies for socially preferential projects, low income people and poor people who have difficulty getting housing. The policies help stabilise politics, ensure social security and contribute to the modernization of both urban and rural areas.

The strategy has built up very detailed targets for the next 5 years: striving to build at least 10 million sq.m of social houses, including houses for low income people in urban areas; supporting about 400 thousand poor families in rural areas to improve their housing, reducing the ratio of slum housing to under 5 percent; and raising the number of houses for rent to 20 percent of total housing stock, to serve low income people.

For the next 5 years, it aims to build 12.5 million sq.m of social housing in urban areas and to support 500,000 rural poor people to improve their houses, ending slum housing; and will ensure that the ratio of houses for rent will reach at least 30 percent of housing stock.

According to Prof Dr Dang Hung Vo, the program will make the home ownership dream of low income and poor people become reality sooner.

Minister Trinh Dinh Dung noted that housing development is a long term strategy which cannot be completed in just one day. For example, building a house takes at least several months or even years. It is generally difficult to have something completed in just one year. However, people have the right to believe in the housing development targets of the strategy. According to the strategy, real estate investors have to not only develop commercial houses, but also focus on social housing. Investors are bound to get involved, not because of administrative obligations, but because of economic relations.

Reported by Luong Tuan | VCCI News

Work starts on Vuon Tung Clubhouse

VNRE- On February 7th 2012, in very first days of the new Lunar New Year, Vihajico has officially started the construction of Vuon Tung Clubhouse. Built on a one-hectare area, this will be the recreational center for the entire Vuon Tung community. The project will include the construction of two swimming pools (one for children and the other for adults), 2 tennis courts, 3 badminton courts, outdoor event center, restaurants, Jacuzzi, sauna, park, etc... After completion, it will serve the recreational demand of Vuon Tung community in particular, and the entire Ecopark community as a whole. The project is expected to be completed in July 2012 to welcome Vuon Tung‘s first inhabitants, after only 5 months of construction.

This event, together with other works which have continued from early days of the spring, is a demonstration for the developer’s efforts and commitment to ensure its promises on constructional rate of progress to customers. The lively working environment has given a beautiful characteristic to the spring in Ecopark.



Source: Vihajico

Output gap

Tôi có viết vài entry về output gap/potential GDP trước đây và đã giới thiệu một số phương pháp tính (tham khảo thêm bài này của Mark Thoma). Tuần vừa rồi giới blogger lại rộ lên về vấn đề này sau một bài phát biểu của James Bullard, giám đốc Fed St Louis. Bullard hiện là thành viên của FOMC, hội đồng quyết định lãi suất của Fed, và vẫn được cho là hawkish so với các thành viên khác (muốn tăng lãi suất).

Để quyết định lãi suất các nhà kinh tế của Fed sử dụng Taylor's rule, một hàm số liên hệ giữa lãi suất với lạm phát và output gap. Đa số các nhà kinh tế đều cho rằng hiện tại output gap của Mỹ đang âm rất lớn, không dưới 5%. Do đó theo Taylor's rule lãi suất danh nghĩa đúng ra phải âm nên FOMC giữ lãi suất gần zero là có cơ sở. Phản bác lại lập luận này, Bullard cho rằng output gap hiện tại không (âm) lớn như nhiều người ước tính mà có lẽ đã gần zero, do đó có cơ sở để FOMC tăng lãi suất. Theo Bullard, các ước tính khác sai vì potential GDP sau khi khủng hoảng đã thấp hơn so với các tính toán trước đây (output gap = actual GDP - potential GDP).

Sở dĩ potential GDP của Mỹ sau khủng hoảng giảm vì khi giá nhà đất giảm và không phục hồi lại được, một lượng của cải lớn đã biến mất, do đó năng lực sản xuất của nền kinh tế bị ảnh hưởng. Lập luận này ngay lập tức bị "ném đá" tơi bời bởi phe "salt water" (Krugman, Matt Yglesias, Karl Smith, Tim Duy, Scott Sumner) trong khi phe "fresh water" (David Andolfatto, Stephen Williamson, Tyler Cowen) lên tiếng bảo vệ nhưng khá yếu. Bullard, từng theo học kinh tế tại Minnesota và Indiana University, hiện đang là adjunct faculty của Washington University at St Louis, vẫn được cho là thành viên của phe fresh water.

Trong những phản biện của phe salt water, bài của Tim Duy rõ ràng nhất (nên đọc này, bài của Krugman khá nasty, có ý chê bai bằng PhD của Bullard). Trong đó Tim Duy cho rằng Bullard sai lầm vì wealth effect chỉ ảnh hưởng đến demand side chứ không có tác động trực tiếp lên supply side, nghĩa là potential GDP không bị ảnh hưởng gì. Demand side là lãnh địa của trường phái Keynesian (một bộ phận của salt water), bởi vậy khá ngạc nhiên Bullard đi lạc vào đây trong khi từ trước tới giờ phe fresh water vẫn chê bai các chính sách demand management của giới Keynesian. Quan trọng hơn Tim Duy chỉ ra rằng mặc dù Bullard chỉ trích ước lượng potential output của Congressional Budget Office (CBO) nhưng dường như Bullard không hiểu mô hình và cách tính của CBO. Trên thực tế CBO dựa vào mô hình Solow's growth model để ước lượng potential GDP, một mô hình thuộc lại neo-classical.

Để chữa cháy, Bullard gửi một bức thư trả lời Tim Duy (đến bao giờ mới có một quan chức VN viết thư trả lời blogger hay nhà báo nhỉ?) trích dẫn nghiên cứu của Susanto Basu và John Fernald, trong đó 2 tác giả này chỉ trích các mô hình "one-sector" như Solow's growth model nói riêng và các ước lượng potential output nói chung. Nếu dùng mô hình để ước lượng output gap, họ cho rằng cần sử dụng một mô hình general equilibrium vd một DSGE dựa trên New Keynesian models. Trong bài trả lời này Bullard dường như nhận ra sai lầm của mình trong bài phát biểu trước nên đã chuyển sang một lập luận khác cho rằng nền kinh tế Mỹ trước khủng hoảng vận hành above trend, nghĩa là có output gap dương (Andolfatto bảo vệ Bullard theo hướng này). Do đó những ước lượng potential output dựa vào số liệu lịch sử sẽ bị upward bias.

Tim Duy không buông tha, cho rằng lập luận này vẫn ẩn chứa demand side và như vậy không thuyết phục. Krugman cũng vậy, căn vặn nếu housing bubble làm nền kinh tế overheated thì tại sao lạm phát vẫn thấp. Đến nước này Bullard phải chơi bài "im lặng là thượng sách" :-)


[Bonus: Không biết tình cờ hay cố ý, Barclay cũng cáo buộc ước lượng của CBO bị inflated với lập luận giống hệt như Bullard. Karl Smith viện dẫn Barro bác bỏ lập luận này.]

Are You Twitter Listing?

By now, you're likely tweeting away! Whether you're a twitter newbie or a veteran, Twitter lists will prove to be most helpful, especially as you grow the number of people you follow on Twitter.
Someone recently asked me how I seem to find goodness-filled tweets when I'm following 4,000 people. My answer: Twitter lists.

Thank goodness, I had enough insight when I was new on Twitter to create and use Twitter lists. Sure, it was somewhere between follower 1 and follower 1,000 that I realized how essential the lists would prove to be.  Yep, there were a few long days where I had to back-track and list each person I was following so that my streams were super-organized. 

Example: Out of 4,000 people, nearly 500 are Charleston marketing and public relations professionals.  And I have them all in their very own list.  That means at any time of the day or night, I can jump over to that list (on my computer OR phone) and see what's going on with these talented peeps.

Same goes for artists...I have close to 200 artists whom all took "Flying Lessons" with Kelly Rae Roberts in their own organized list.

Twitter gives you up to 20 lists of your very own.  Think about how your followers break down (do you tend to follow authors, inspirational folks, house and home peeps, jewelry makers, mommy bloggers, tech bloggers, etc?) - make lists and start listing! And if you're late to the list party? Trust me, it's worth adopting lists today, and even going back to list your tweeps.

Need a tutorial on how to create a Twitter list? I'm reposting a link to this updated tutorial, previously shared on this blog but still very handy.

Are we following each other? Tweet me @lauracatherineo and tell me you read this post.  I'd love to meet you!

Enjoy!

Laura is a marketing professional and blogger who has been active in social media since 2005.  If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to this blog via Email or  RSS. Laura can also be found on Twitter (@LauraCatherineO), Facebook, and LinkedIn.
 

Personality and Attitudes

Personality and attitudes represent important micro, cognitively oriented variables in the study of organizational behavior. Personality - Introduction Personality represents the "whole person" concept. It includes perception, learning, motivation, and more. According to this definition, people's external appearance and traits, their inner awareness of self, and their person-situation interaction make up their personalities. In personality theory, different approaches have been tried. The historically important ones include trait theory (observable patterns of behavior that recur frequently), Freud's psychoanalytic or psychodynamic theory (in which personality is shaped by unconscious determinants of behavior), and Carl Rogers and Abraham Maslow's humanistic theory (Every person strives to realize one's potential). Although the nature versus nurture debate in shaping personality continues, the findings of twin studies of the importance that heredity may play in personality and recent breakthroughs in neuropsychology that points to the importance of the brain in personality have led most psychologists to recognize both nature and nurture. However, the nurture side still dominates. In personality theory, the study of relatively fixed predispositions has resurfaced in the form of the "Big Five" personality traits. Conscientiousness, emotional stability, agreeableness, extraversion, and openness to experience have been found to significantly relate to job performance, especially conscientiousness. In addition, the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) remains a popular tool for personal and career development. Whereas the Big Five is based on research, the MBTI is based on the historically important Carl Jung theory of personality types and mental processes. Both the Big Five and MBTI if carefully interpreted and used can make a contribution to the understanding and application of organizational behavior. Personality and Related Concepts   Luthans has taken the position that personality will mean how people affect others and how they understand and view themselves, as well as their pattern of inner and outer measurable traits and their person-situation interaction behavior.   Self-Variables The self of a person is a unique product of many interacting parts andmay be thought of as the personality viewed by a person within. People's understanding regarding themselves is called self-concept in personality theory. Self-esteem, multiple intellgences, emotion, optimism and efficacy are important self-variables and have application in organizational behavior. Self-Esteem   Self-esteem includes people's self perceived competence and self-image. Is high self esteem good for organization's performance. Kreitner and Kinicki concluded that high self esteem can be good thing only when it is nurtured and channeled in constructive and ethical ways. Otherwise, it can become antisocial and destructive. So behavior managers have a role to play in getting the appropriate performance from high self-esteem individuals. An elaboration of self esteem in organizational context has emerged. It is called organization-based self esteem (OBSE). It is defined as the self-perceived value that individuals have of themselves as organization members acting within an organization context. Self esteem is a global trait, meaning it is present interactions of an individual in a similar way. The Big Five Personality Traits Researchers have identified 171 personality traits on which persons can be ranked or measured. This 171 trait list was prepared after sufficient effort in reducing the number of traits by identifying similar traits and combining them. From these 171 traits, five core personality traits called the five factor model was found to be of value for use in organizational situations. These five traits are:     Conscientiousness     Emotional stability     Agreeableness     Extraversion     Openness to experience To get a high score on these parameters the person must have the following characteristics or behavior. To get a high score on conscientiousness, the person has to be dependable, hardworking, organized, self-disciplined, persistent and responsible. To get a high score on emotional stability, the person has to be normally calm, secure, happy and unworried. To get a high score on agreeableness, the person has to be cooperative, warm, caring, good-natured, courteous and trusting. To get a high score on openness to experience, the person has to be curious, flexible, creative, imaginative, artistically sensitive, open to other cultures and open to intellectual discussions. Myers- Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) In the 1940s, Katharine Briggs and  Isable Briggs-Myers developed a personality test to measure their preferences on four pairs of traits proposed earlier by Carl Jung in the 1920s. These four traits are extraversion-introversion, sensing-intuiting, thinking-feeling, and judging-perceiving. Extraversion and introversion are related to feeling energetic and comfortable. Extraverts are more energetic in groups. Introverts are more energetic and productive alone. Sensing and intuiting are related to collecting information for solving a problem. People who prefer sensing look into the specifics of situation, want concrete evidence and facts, go into details and are practical persons. People who prefer intuition look into possibilities, are satisfied with general description of the situation, use abstract and theoretical ideas. Thinking and feeling are related to evaluation of alternatives for decision making. People who prefer thinking are analytical, they follow a set of rules, use their head or brain and are more inclined to judge based on the evidence. Persons who prefer feeling, are more subjective, take circumstances into account and are not so rule bound, they use heart in preference to brain and may show mercy (or vindictiveness in negative manner). Judging and perceiving are related to the orientation of a person to the outside world. Persons who show the traits of judging are organized, structured, time oriented and decisive people.Persons who show traits of perceiving are seen more as flexible persons who explore things spontaneously and are open ended with behavior. Socialization Nurture is socialization. Every new born child is nurtured or socialized by his parents, relatives, neighbors,  friends, teachers, religious priests, his superiors, subordinates etc. Personality development is influenced by socialization. Application of Various Personality Theories and Concepts in Organization Behavior Theory Self-esteem is an important variable. If a person has low self-esteem and not confident about his thinking ability, he likely to fear decision making and may not be able to assert himself in interpersonal relations. Research has shown that employees with high self esteem feel unique, competent, secure,  and empowered. Socialization Schein has advocated that organizations must have socialization process. The socialization process helps in changing attitudes, values and behaviors. It ensures continuity and consistency of behavior of various persons of the organization. It will facilitate adjustment to new jobs, work groups and new practices. The early period of socialization of new recruits is a critical period. The important activities related to socialization process of an organization include: 1. Relevant training 2. Timely and consistent feedback 3. Initial work under good supervisors 4. A orientation program 5. Socialization in high morale work groups. 6. Challenging jobs in the early part of career. Deliberate and well designed socialization programs do have tremendous potential impact on the personality development of members of an organization within the organization (personality development after they have joined the organization). Attitude An attitude can be defined as a persistent tendency to feel and behave in a particular way toward some object. Attitudes are a complex cognitive variables that have three basic characteristics: they are directed toward an object about which a person has feelings, and beliefs,  they persist unless changed in some way; and they range along a continuum from positive to negative.  Attitudes have three components: emotional (feelings), informational, and behavioral. Behavior can be observed, but the feelings and belief which give rise to the behavior cannot be observed. Attitudes, being persistent often help employees adapt to their work environment by providing a way of interpreting things or happenings in the environment. There are four functions that attitudes have in this process: (1) they help people adjust to their environment, (2) they help people defend their self-image, (3) they provide people with a basis for expressing their values, and (4) they help supply standards and frames of reference that allow people to organize and explain the world around them. Changing Attitudes Attitudes can be changed. Bit it is sometimes difficult to change attitudes. There are two important barriers.  One reason is prior commitments. A second is insufficient information on the part of the person having an attitude to be changed. Research shows that some of the ways of bringing about attitude changes are providing new information, and persuasion by friends or peers, and co-opting. Fear also helps in changing attitudes. There are some instances, where or when an individual may be in stage of forming attitude or belief. Organizations can provide appropriate information and create appropriate situation to develop desirable attitudes at that point of time. Personality traits or dispositions, such as positive affectivity (PA) and negative affectivity (NA), are important antecedents to attitudes about one's job. Traditionally the most important attitude studied and given concern in the real world is job satisfaction. Job Satisfaction This attitude is defined as a pleasurable or positive emotional state resulting from the appraisal of one's job or job experience. More simply stated, it an attitude toward the job. Does the person has a positive attitude or negative attitude toward job.  A number of factors influence job satisfaction. Job satisfaction is a combination of attitudes towards factors related to a job.Some of the major ones are the work itself, pay, promotions, supervision, the work group, and working conditions. There are a number of outcomes of job satisfaction. For example, There is relationship between satisfaction and job performace.  Although the relationship with performance was thought to be relatively weak (0.17), recent research is showing a much stronger relationship. Low job satisfaction tends to lead to both turnover and absenteeism, whereas high job satisfaction often results in fewer on-the-job accidents and work grievances, less time needed to learn new job-related tasks, and less stress. Efforts to Increase Job Satisfaction A job satisfaction has positive impact on many desirable outcomes of the organizations, management can take some steps to increase job satisfaction. Some of the specific guidelines mentioned by Luthans: Make jobs more fun, Ensuring fairness, Get the right fit, Design jobs to make them more exciting and satisfying. Organizational Commitment Attitude Closely related to job satisfaction is the organizational commitment attitude. It traditionally refers to the employees' loyalty to the organization. An an attitude, organizational commitment is defined as (1) a strong desire to remain a member of a particular organization; (2) a willingness to exert high levels of effort on behalf of the organization; and (3) a definite belief in, and acceptance of, the values and goals of the organization. Organizational commitment is determined by a number of personal, organizational, and nonorganizational variables. Now commitment is generally conceived as having three components: Affective (emotional attachment), Continuance (costs of leaving): willingness to stay in the organization due to costs of leaving.  Normative (obligation to stay): The person feels it obligatory to stay in the organization.  Like job satisfaction, the organizational commitment attitude is very complex (composed of number of attitudes towards various factors in the organization) and has mixed results with respect to desired outcomes of the organization. But in general, it is thought to have a somewhat stronger relationship with organizational outcomes such as performance, absenteeism, and turnover. Like satisfaction, organizational commitment can be enhanced. Organizational Citizenship Behaviors (OCBs)  Organ defines this concept as "individual behavior that is discretionary, not directly or explicitly recognized by the formal reward syste, and that in the aggregate promotes the effective functioning of the organization." The OCBs can be a personality level concept. The extra-role, prosocial/organizational citizenship behaviors (OCBs) involve predispositional traits to be cooperative and conscientious. OCBs include  a variety of behaviors, and the major ones are  altruism, conscientiousness, civic virtue, sportsmanship, and courtesy. In an organization perceived as a just organization, more employee display OCBs. Although there is still some criticism of the conceptualization and research of OCBs, there is growing evidence that OCBs positively relate to individual, group, and organizational performance.   References  Fred Luthans, Organizational Behavior,  McGraw-Hill, 10th Edition, 2005 (Main Text for Revision Articles) Related article  http://nraombakc.blogspot.com/2012/01/personality-theories-and-assessment.html Originally posted in Knol ( Knol number 161)