10 thg 2, 2013
Iceland II
Cách đây gần 3 năm tôi có viết một entry về Iceland (time flies!) kể về câu chuyện nước Iceland nhỏ bé bị ảnh hưởng của cuộc khủng hoảng tài chính đã dám "quịt nợ" 2 nước lớn là Anh và Hà lan. Một năm sau đó (đầu năm 2011) người dân Iceland lại đi bỏ phiếu trong một cuộc trưng cầu dân ý lần 2 có chấp nhận trả tiền bailout cho Anh và Hà lan hay không. Một lần nữa họ lại nói không với 59% số phiếu bất chấp quốc hội Anh trước đó đã sử dụng luật chống khủng bố để phong tỏa tài sản của Iceland và vô số lời đe dọa của giới banker quốc tế rằng Iceland sẽ bị cắt khỏi thị trường vốn quốc tế nếu không trả nợ. Cuối cùng Anh và Hà lan đã kiện Iceland ra một tòa án của EU nhưng tòa vừa tuyên bố Iceland thắng, nước này không phải trả tiền bailout cho Anh và Hà lan. Để biết chi tiết hơn về vụ tranh chấp này các bạn có thể đọc lại entry tôi viết trước đây và/hoặc nghe podcast này của NPR. Ở đây tôi chỉ muốn nêu ra 2 bài học liên quan đến vụ kiện tụng này.
Thứ nhất, việc mỗi người dân Iceland, không kể già trẻ lớn bé giàu nghèo, không phải trả $6000 cho Anh và Hà lan vì tội lỗi của một số banker giàu có, có thể nói là thắng lợi của người dân và democracy. Khi chính phủ và quốc hội Iceland đã chấp nhận trả tiền cho Anh và Hà lan, người dân kéo đến biểu tình trước dinh tổng thống yêu cầu ông này phủ quyết. Tổng thống của Iceland chỉ là một chức vụ hình thức, hoàn toàn không có thực quyền. Chưa bao giờ trong lịch sử tổng thống sử dụng quyền phủ quyết, đến mức có lúc Iceland đã cân nhắc bỏ quyền này của tổng thống khỏi hiến pháp. Nhưng trước sức ép biểu tình của người dân và 1/4 cử tri Iceland đã ký thỉnh nguyện thư yêu cầu tổng thống phủ quyết, ông đã bắt chấp thông lệ đứng lên chống lại quyết định của cả chính phủ lẫn quốc hội. Đó chính là cơ sở để chính phủ Iceland phải tổ chức 2 cuộc referendum cho vấn đề này và người dân đã lên tiếng dứt khoát: không trả!
Thứ hai, ba năm trước chính tôi cũng rất bi quan cho tương lai kinh tế của Iceland sau lần referendum đầu tiên, nhưng tôi đã lầm. Trái với nhiều cảnh báo của giới kinh tế tài chính, Iceland không bị thị trường vốn quốc tế bỏ rơi. Nền kinh tế Iceland sau khi gần như vỡ nợ đã phục hồi mạnh mẽ. Paul Krugman đã không dưới một lần viện dẫn Iceland như là hình mẫu phục hồi mà đáng ra châu Âu phải noi theo. Điều này không hẳn khẳng định lời của một nhà kinh tế được NPR trích dẫn: "Financial market doesn't have memory", nó có nhưng nó còn forward looking mạnh hơn. Nói nôm na là dù quá khứ anh có xấu xa tồi tệ, nếu anh thực sự cải tổ nền kinh tế và thực thi những chính sách đúng đắn, tương lai tốt đẹp mới là điều thị trường quan tâm. Ví dụ của Malaysia sau khủng hoảng tài chính 1997-1999 cũng chứng mình điều này.
Ngày xuân nhắc lại câu chuyện cũ nhưng có hậu này để thấy rằng VN sẽ có một tương lai rất sáng lạn nếu nền kinh tế được thay máu triệt để, đất nước được giao những người thực sự có tài lèo lái. Nhưng dù tài giỏi đến đâu, những người đứng đầu phải lắng nghe tiếng nói, nguyện vọng của dân. Phải có những lãnh đạo dám đứng lên chống lại cơ chế hiện hữu như tổng thống Iceland đã làm. Những quyết sách của đất nước phải công khai với dân (như người dân Iceland đã được biết thỏa thuận trả tiền bailout cho nước ngoài, chứ không phải như vụ Elliott Advisors người dân VN chẳng biết gì). Những điều tưởng như rất tự nhiên đó mà người dân Iceland và nhiều nước khác đang được hưởng thụ chính là rào cản cho sự phát triển của VN.
9 thg 2, 2013
The year of snake
Không rõ theo lý thuyết tử vi phương Đông thì năm Tỵ thế nào (hình như những người tuổi Tỵ thường thông minh). Tuy nhiên thống kê của Jeff Kleintop (trích dẫn ở đây) năm Tỵ là năm tệ nhất cho S&P 500 trong lịch sử, hi vọng điều này không đúng cho VN-Index. Dẫu sao cũng chúc các bạn may mắn và thành công trong năm Quí Tỵ.
Helping People Win At Work
Here are some of my favorite pieces of advice from Ken Blanchard's and Garry Ridge's book, Helping People Win at Work:
- All good performance starts with clear goals.
- Continually planning and executing without the value of review and learning can blindside you.
- You don't want to save up feedback until somebody fails.
- It's amazing how much more you learn when you admit you don't know.
- If you can't measure something, you can't manage it.
- The key to developing people is to catch them doing something right.
- Whenever you attempt to influence someone else's beliefs, thinking, or behavior, you're engaging in leadership.
- A compelling vision tells people who they are, where they are going, and what will guide their journey.
Full Engagement By Brian Tracy
Best-selling author Brian Tracy's book, Full Engagement, provides practical advice for how to inspire your employees to perform at their absolute best. He explains that above nearly every measure, employees' most powerful single motivator is the "desire to be happy."
So, Tracy teaches you how to make your employees happy by:
- Organizing their work from the first step in the hiring process through the final step in their departure from your company so they are happy with you, their work, their coworkers, as well as in their interactions with your customers, suppliers and vendors.
- The Psychology of Motivation
- Ignite the Flame of Personal Performance
- Make People Feel Important
- Drive Out Fear
- Create That Winning Feeling
- Select The Right People
- Internal Versus External Motivation
- Smile
- Ask questions
- Listen
- Be polite
- Say "Thank You"
- Keep employees informed
- Encourage improvement
- Treat employees like volunteers
- Pay employees well
- Compliment employees
- Assure harmony
- Praise regularly
- Refuse to criticize
- Celebrate success
- Express interest in employees
- Be a mentor
- Give employees freedom to do their work
- Protect employees from negativity, rudeness or bad treatment from other people
- Be pleasant
- Speak positively about your staff with other people
- Be clear about employee's job responsibilities
- Give feedback
- Be a good role model
- Disagree without being disagreeable
- Set clear, specific, measureable, achievable, realistic and time-bounded goals
- Interview three candidates
- Interview the person you like best three times
- Interview the that person in three different meeting places
- Have three different people interview you top candidate
I recommend the book for any manager who wants to learn how best to work with an employee to:
- build up his/her self-esteem
- build his/her self-image
- drive away his/her fears
- make him/her feel like a winner
8 thg 2, 2013
Reviving the Vietnamese Real Estate Market in 2013
Resolution 02/NQ-CP and other urgent immediate and long-term recommendations aim to stop the worsening situation of the real estate business in 2013, as well as over the next 3 - 5 years.
On the occasion of the new year 2013, the Vietnam Business Forum had a talk with Mr Phan Thanh Mai, General Secretary of the Vietnam Real Estate Association, around this issue. Anh Son reports.
How would you describe the situation of the real estate market in Vietnam in 2012?
To talk about the state of the real estate market in Vietnam in 2012, we can fully use the word: severe.
Why do I say that? Firstly, the current confidence of consumers – the market participants – seriously declines and real estate businesses are, at the same time, facing many difficulties such as large inventories (finished products, under-building construction, unfinished projects not sold), while enterprises do not have the resources to recover, and thus face the risk of losing liquidity and entering bankruptcy when revenue declines past the point of offsetting the costs and expenses to maintain operations.
Secondly, input costs are too high, making it difficult for real estate enterprises to implement projects for people with average and below average income, as well as commercial projects and social housing. Specifically, in terms of cost of land, according to the regulations on land use payment and deductible compensation and land lease in the Land Law, Decree 69/2009 and Decree 120/2010, enterprises have to pay back 100 percent of the land use fee to the State, meanwhile the time of investment projects are not clear so they don’t know the exact amount of land use fee to be submitted to the State. In terms of loans, interest rates for real estate remain high, at around 17 percent / year, so the interest burden for businesses is huge. They also face construction costs and other no name costs, such as project implementation period being extended due to cumbersome administrative procedures, and overlapping at all stages, especially in land clearance and necessary approvals. Many businesses have adopted the strategy to convert commercial housing projects to social housing, or change the design by splitting flat area, but they also face many difficulties due to the provisions of Construction standards 323: 2004.
Thirdly, bad debts and overdue debts are a burden which obstruct access to new credit, leaving real estate businesses without new capital to restructure and continue operations. Along with that is the state of interest rates, about 12 – 15 percent, which is still nearly double the rate of return on equity (ROE) of real estate businesses (about 8 percent), which means that real estate business cannot run effectively, leading right back to new bad debt.
As a representative of about 1,500 real estate businesses, what are the Association’s recommendations about solutions to ease difficulties for the property market in the next few years?
Solving the problems of the real estate market is a multifaceted issue. So, based the recommendations of experts and the business association, we propose the following solutions, which need to have the cooperation of several ministries.
First, we should quickly implement the package passed by the Government to overcome difficulties and support the market, which has been issued in 02/NQ-CP Resolution on January 7th 2013. The above guidelines have a strong positive impact on the confidence of all participants in the real estate market, and the stock market. However, in order to implement the package effectively, the relevant agencies should clarify the detailed progress and deployment solutions such as: review the progress of implementation of projects in the provinces and for conversion purposes, extension of deployment or withdrawal of the project, control the supply and demand at the local level; focus on the development of social housing; support and promote demand adopted to realize the expansion of foreigners who are allowed to buy houses in Vietnam.
In addition, it is necessary to establish a Vietnam Asset Management Company - VAMC in the shortest time possible to buy bad debt at book value or market value, conduct bad debt settlement, and address overdue debt, so businesses can have opportunities to access new capital. We should submit to the National Assembly soon preferential policies for enterprises to implement social housing such as: corporate income tax of 10 percent, VAT output to drop about 5 percent in 12 months from January 7th 2013. For commercial housing projects with cost of less than 15 million / m2 and area below 70m2 / apartment, the preferential VAT policy output fell to 30 percent in 12 months from January 7th 2013.
Secondly, we need to stimulate public investment, especially investment in infrastructure. This is the foundation to improve confidence of all actors on the market. It’s necessary to settle infrastructure works in progress, and actively promote the project to solve the problem of urban traffic; and continue reforms towards "one-stop-shop" at Provincial Committee departments, in order to shorten half-time evaluation and planning approval, especially settlement procedures adjusting detailed planning of 1/500 and the design of the project in stock, unfinished construction, conversion from commercial houses to social housing.
Thirdly, we should suspend the decrees, resolutions and circulars in 2013, without the comments of the enterprises, if their content does not support the market. It’s urgent to focus on amendments supporting market policy. In the draft policy, businesses can now give feedback and after the enactment, it’s necessary to give guidance for businesses. The policy should include not only sanctions, but also preferential terms. Especially after a period of policy implementation, we should review and measure the level of "companion" policy.
For specific ministries, the introduction of measures to shore up the market is very important. What does the Association propose regarding the ministries and agencies?
To the central bank, the Association proposed further reduction of interest rates to 8-10 percent / year, because the rate of return on equity (ROE) of real estate business is very low. At the same time, it’s necessary to have preferential policies on interest rates or reduce their tax for commercial banks, which spend annually 3 percent of total loans for social housing development. It should also form a re-mortgage model (Malaysia model), providing new funds for home buyers, especially in the form of policy objects and social housing.
It should also give the package of VND20,000 - 40,000 billion for social housing and commercial housing under VND 15 million/m2 for houses of less than 70m2 with an interest rate under 8 percent / year, so customers have the ability to pay.
To the Ministry of Finance, we proposed applying double non-taxation through cutting corporate income tax equal to 0 in order to promote real estate investment fund models (similar to real estate investment trusts REITs) under Decree 58/2012/ND-CP; delay and reduce VAT for businesses in general which have large inventory associated with the real estate industry and construction materials, provided that the product inventory is of domestic origin; and exclude the land use fee for projects completed land use fees in accordance with the law for merger of Hanoi.
For the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, the early research suggested the Land Law (Revised), which clearly stipulates how the market price of land is determined. Amending Decree 69/2009 / ND-CP content "land use fees at market price monitoring mechanism" to avoid tax 2 times; allow transfer of the payment of land use from the investor to the purchaser responsible (apply as in the case of Phu My Hung, Ciputra); Buyer may owe land use (such as applied when GCN authority to use the land for the first time for families and individuals workers) in the period from 3 to 10 years, homebuyer assistance through the mechanism of payment of land use.
To the Ministry of Construction, we proposed considering a change to the standard of high-rise building on the prescribed flat rate small, medium and large in proportion 1:2:1 as inconsistent with the facts; instead, it should allow businesses to balance and select the rate in accordance with market demand, by region and by project; and reduce the area target from at least 8m2/person in Part 2, Section 2.42 "regulations on planning land use” of QCXDVN01: 2008/BXD into 5m2/ person in the planning criteria for the construction of public housing group. - Source: VCCI News
On the occasion of the new year 2013, the Vietnam Business Forum had a talk with Mr Phan Thanh Mai, General Secretary of the Vietnam Real Estate Association, around this issue. Anh Son reports.
How would you describe the situation of the real estate market in Vietnam in 2012?
To talk about the state of the real estate market in Vietnam in 2012, we can fully use the word: severe.
Why do I say that? Firstly, the current confidence of consumers – the market participants – seriously declines and real estate businesses are, at the same time, facing many difficulties such as large inventories (finished products, under-building construction, unfinished projects not sold), while enterprises do not have the resources to recover, and thus face the risk of losing liquidity and entering bankruptcy when revenue declines past the point of offsetting the costs and expenses to maintain operations.
Secondly, input costs are too high, making it difficult for real estate enterprises to implement projects for people with average and below average income, as well as commercial projects and social housing. Specifically, in terms of cost of land, according to the regulations on land use payment and deductible compensation and land lease in the Land Law, Decree 69/2009 and Decree 120/2010, enterprises have to pay back 100 percent of the land use fee to the State, meanwhile the time of investment projects are not clear so they don’t know the exact amount of land use fee to be submitted to the State. In terms of loans, interest rates for real estate remain high, at around 17 percent / year, so the interest burden for businesses is huge. They also face construction costs and other no name costs, such as project implementation period being extended due to cumbersome administrative procedures, and overlapping at all stages, especially in land clearance and necessary approvals. Many businesses have adopted the strategy to convert commercial housing projects to social housing, or change the design by splitting flat area, but they also face many difficulties due to the provisions of Construction standards 323: 2004.
Thirdly, bad debts and overdue debts are a burden which obstruct access to new credit, leaving real estate businesses without new capital to restructure and continue operations. Along with that is the state of interest rates, about 12 – 15 percent, which is still nearly double the rate of return on equity (ROE) of real estate businesses (about 8 percent), which means that real estate business cannot run effectively, leading right back to new bad debt.
As a representative of about 1,500 real estate businesses, what are the Association’s recommendations about solutions to ease difficulties for the property market in the next few years?
Solving the problems of the real estate market is a multifaceted issue. So, based the recommendations of experts and the business association, we propose the following solutions, which need to have the cooperation of several ministries.
First, we should quickly implement the package passed by the Government to overcome difficulties and support the market, which has been issued in 02/NQ-CP Resolution on January 7th 2013. The above guidelines have a strong positive impact on the confidence of all participants in the real estate market, and the stock market. However, in order to implement the package effectively, the relevant agencies should clarify the detailed progress and deployment solutions such as: review the progress of implementation of projects in the provinces and for conversion purposes, extension of deployment or withdrawal of the project, control the supply and demand at the local level; focus on the development of social housing; support and promote demand adopted to realize the expansion of foreigners who are allowed to buy houses in Vietnam.
In addition, it is necessary to establish a Vietnam Asset Management Company - VAMC in the shortest time possible to buy bad debt at book value or market value, conduct bad debt settlement, and address overdue debt, so businesses can have opportunities to access new capital. We should submit to the National Assembly soon preferential policies for enterprises to implement social housing such as: corporate income tax of 10 percent, VAT output to drop about 5 percent in 12 months from January 7th 2013. For commercial housing projects with cost of less than 15 million / m2 and area below 70m2 / apartment, the preferential VAT policy output fell to 30 percent in 12 months from January 7th 2013.
Secondly, we need to stimulate public investment, especially investment in infrastructure. This is the foundation to improve confidence of all actors on the market. It’s necessary to settle infrastructure works in progress, and actively promote the project to solve the problem of urban traffic; and continue reforms towards "one-stop-shop" at Provincial Committee departments, in order to shorten half-time evaluation and planning approval, especially settlement procedures adjusting detailed planning of 1/500 and the design of the project in stock, unfinished construction, conversion from commercial houses to social housing.
Thirdly, we should suspend the decrees, resolutions and circulars in 2013, without the comments of the enterprises, if their content does not support the market. It’s urgent to focus on amendments supporting market policy. In the draft policy, businesses can now give feedback and after the enactment, it’s necessary to give guidance for businesses. The policy should include not only sanctions, but also preferential terms. Especially after a period of policy implementation, we should review and measure the level of "companion" policy.
For specific ministries, the introduction of measures to shore up the market is very important. What does the Association propose regarding the ministries and agencies?
To the central bank, the Association proposed further reduction of interest rates to 8-10 percent / year, because the rate of return on equity (ROE) of real estate business is very low. At the same time, it’s necessary to have preferential policies on interest rates or reduce their tax for commercial banks, which spend annually 3 percent of total loans for social housing development. It should also form a re-mortgage model (Malaysia model), providing new funds for home buyers, especially in the form of policy objects and social housing.
It should also give the package of VND20,000 - 40,000 billion for social housing and commercial housing under VND 15 million/m2 for houses of less than 70m2 with an interest rate under 8 percent / year, so customers have the ability to pay.
To the Ministry of Finance, we proposed applying double non-taxation through cutting corporate income tax equal to 0 in order to promote real estate investment fund models (similar to real estate investment trusts REITs) under Decree 58/2012/ND-CP; delay and reduce VAT for businesses in general which have large inventory associated with the real estate industry and construction materials, provided that the product inventory is of domestic origin; and exclude the land use fee for projects completed land use fees in accordance with the law for merger of Hanoi.
For the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, the early research suggested the Land Law (Revised), which clearly stipulates how the market price of land is determined. Amending Decree 69/2009 / ND-CP content "land use fees at market price monitoring mechanism" to avoid tax 2 times; allow transfer of the payment of land use from the investor to the purchaser responsible (apply as in the case of Phu My Hung, Ciputra); Buyer may owe land use (such as applied when GCN authority to use the land for the first time for families and individuals workers) in the period from 3 to 10 years, homebuyer assistance through the mechanism of payment of land use.
To the Ministry of Construction, we proposed considering a change to the standard of high-rise building on the prescribed flat rate small, medium and large in proportion 1:2:1 as inconsistent with the facts; instead, it should allow businesses to balance and select the rate in accordance with market demand, by region and by project; and reduce the area target from at least 8m2/person in Part 2, Section 2.42 "regulations on planning land use” of QCXDVN01: 2008/BXD into 5m2/ person in the planning criteria for the construction of public housing group. - Source: VCCI News
7 thg 2, 2013
How To Build Trust
You can't lead if your employees, team or followers don't trust you.
Building trust takes energy, effort and constant attention to how you act.
To help build trust, follow these 16 tips, recommended by author Susan H. Shearouse:
- Be honest
- Keep commitments and keep your word
- Avoid surprises
- Be consistent with your mood
- Be your best
- Demonstrate respect
- Listen
- Communicate
- Speak with a positive intent
- Admit mistakes
- Be willing to hear feedback
- Maintain confidences
- Get to know others
- Practice empathy
- Seek input from others
- Say "thank you"
5 Leadership Quotes For Today
Some of my favorite quotes for leaders are:
- A good leader takes a little more than his share of the blame, a little less than his share of the credit -- Arnold H. Glasgow
- I praise loudly, I blame softly -- Catherine II of Russia
- Honest disagreement is often a good sign of progress -- Mohandas Gandhi
- A long dispute means that both parties are wrong -- Voltaire
- The least questioned assumptions are often the most questionable -- Paul Broca
Đăng ký:
Bài đăng (Atom)